This page shows the performance of the example models and explains how they were created.
We also explain how they can be used to view their historical evolution, verify
"out-of-sample" evolution since their creation, and continue model evolution for ongoing performance evaluation. Finally we explain how these models can be used for trading.
The example models were created on the model creation date shown in the tables below (not to be confused with the historical model start date) and are still evolving and generating signals as of today. Because they were created with the Adaptive Modeler version that was current at that time, they don't make use of improvements brought by later versions.
The tables show the Trading Simulator performance of the models. The historical results are the results from model start date until model creation date.
It should be noted that the historical model results may seem less impressive than those reported by many other trading software systems that use some form of optimization. However, as explained here, Adaptive Modeler's incremental walk-forward approach (not optimized) prevents overfitting and leads to more resilient models whose historical results are more reliable and more indicative of future results.
The results since creation are the results from model creation date until recently. Since the historical period generally spans several decades while the period since creation is much shorter, relatively less significance should be attributed to the results since creation. Models that have performed well historically, may also sometimes undergo periods of poor performance and may therefore (temporarily) show poor returns since creation date.
More extensive performance information is available inside the models.
All the downloadable model files are copies made on the model's creation date and were uploaded to the website on that date. The downloadable model files have not been modified since then so they still reflect the situation on creation date. This allows users to observe and verify "out-of-sample" model evolution and performance since model creation date for themselves.
To download and open a model in Adaptive Modeler, follow these steps:
You will then see the model as it was on creation date. The Performance window will show the same historical results as shown on this webpage. (Note: the S&P 500 model will immediately continue evolving through the rest of the included quote file after opening).
To continue model evolution until the present, follow these steps:
The model will then continue its evolution by processing the new quotes from the quote file and generate bar-ahead forecasts and trading signals. Once it reaches the end of the quote file, it simply waits for new quotes to be added.
To see the performance since model creation date:
To get undelayed forecasts and signals for the future, the Standard or Professional
Edition of Adaptive Modeler is needed.
Futures, ETFs or other derivatives could be used to trade indices and
commodities. Note that the forecasts and signals in these example model
are based on daily closing prices. Therefore, orders could be placed shortly after regular market
closing in an extended trading session or at the next day's open.