FDA slightly higher than 52%

[aladaf]

Is anybody achieving excess returns with a model in where the accumulated FDA is just 52% or 52.5% after 15 years of data?

That is the highest FDA I am being able to achieve when using the modeler to trade a Brazilian stock (PETR4).

[Jim Witkam]

It will depend on volatility and transaction costs.

52% - 52.5% can be enough as some of our example models with FDA in that range clearly show. For example:

Model                   FDA         Annual Return     Annual Excess Return
FDX                     52.0%           18.7%                      9.1%
LUV                     52.2%            23.9%                    11.6%
Straits Times        52.5%            24.8%                    18.6%
Hang Seng           52.1%            15.9%                      7.2%

These are the results over all model history (ranging from 23 - 29 years for these models) after all transaction costs and excluding dividends.

See the example models on the website.

You can also easily calculate the expected return distribution based on your expected FDA, volatility, and transaction costs, with the Statistical Simulation data series in Adaptive Modeler.